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| 08/29/2010 |
Market May Continue Its Bounce This Week
| Dow: | 10150.65 | Support: 9936 | Resistance: 10278 | Trading range: |
| Nasdaq: | 2153.62 | Support: 2100 | Resistance: 2214 | Trading range: |
| S&P 500: | 1064.59 | Support: 1040 | Resistance: 1084 | Trading range: |
Market Comments:
|
Weekend News: 1. Bernanke presented a scenario for continued expansion as households rebuild their savings, banks increase lending and companies become more willing to hire. He said “the preconditions for a pickup in growth in 2011 appear to remain in place”. Bernanke said the central bank has the tools to prevent the U.S. economy from slipping back into a recession, while stopping short of indicating an immediate need for more stimulus. 2. The Bank of Japan is likely to hold an emergency meeting on Monday to ease monetary policy after Governor Masaaki Shirakawa returned to Tokyo from a trip to the United States earlier than expected. 3. The European Union thinks China has made only limited progress in allowing its yuan currency to move more rapidly, and swifter action would help safeguard a fragile economic recovery, according to a draft G20 document. 4. 3Par (PAR) said late yesterday that H-P's (HPQ) latest offer, this one for $30/share, is a superior proposal, and told Dell it plans to terminate their previous deal for $27/share. But it's too soon for H-P to declare victory, as Dell said today it's considering matching or beating the higher bid. For the week, the 3 major US market indexes closed as follows: Dow +27.03（+0.27％) ， Nasdaq -26.14(-1.20%) and the S&P 500 -7.10(-0.66％）.October Crude Oil +$1.35(+1.83%)to $75.17 and October Gold +$9.00(+0.73%) to $1236.60. US dollar index -0.192(-0.23%) to $82.968. Last week, the market was influenced by the following positive and negative factors: Positives: 1. Merger and acquisitions: HSBC (HBC) to buy 70% of South Africa's Nedbank, HP (HPQ) and Dell Computer (DELL) competing to buy 3Par (PAR), Riotinto (RTP) and unnamed Chinese partner are considering joint bids for Potash (POT). 2. Q2 GDP better than expected Negatives: 1. Worse than expected economic reports: Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Last week's stock market was encouraged by increasing buyout activities which is indicative of valued stock price. However consistantly worse than expected economic reports applied downside pressure. Bull and bear investors were battling around pschological Dow level 10000. By the end of week this level was successfully defended due to better than expected Q2 GDP report and Bernanke's vow to save the economy from further deterioration. The very oversold market condition also helped. Looking ahead, the bullish technical reversals in major market indices last Friday will likely encourage more buying early this week. Investors may turn more cautious mid-week as the ADP employment report will be released Wednesday while Thursday's Jobless Claims and Friday's Nonfarm Payroll report will be the main focus. It may turn out to be a good week as the market bounce to correct its recent 784 point, over 7.3% drop in the Dow. A 38% bounce from last Friday's Dow low price of 9936 would mean a bounce to near 50 day moving average 10278. While a 50% retracement would put the upside target at 10328. |
| ETF | Sectors | 20 DMA |
50 DMA |
200 DMA |
Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IGW | Semiconductors | B | B | B | Down Trend, Support: 42.00 , Resistance: 44.38, Long Tail Reversal Up |
| IGV | Software | A | A | A | Up Trend, Support: 46.35, Resistance:50.00，Bullish Cup and Handle |
| IBB | Biotech | B | B | B | Down Trend, Support：77.79， Resistance:83.72, Three day high |
| FDN | Internet | A | A | A | Up Trend, Support:25.87, Resistance:28.37， Head and Shoulder Bottom |
| PPH | Pharmaceutical | B | A | B | Down Trend,Support :60， Resistance:63.76 |
| XRT | Retail | B | B | B | Down Trend, Support：36，resistance:40 |
| RKH | Regional Banks | B | B | B | Down Trend, Support: 68.21，Resistance:75.90 |
| IYZ | Telecomunication | B | A | A | Up Trend, Support: 19.59, Resistance: 20.77 |
| XLE | Energy | B | B | B | Down Trend, Support: 50.33, Resistance:56, Three day high |
| XLU | Utility | A | A | A | Up Trend, Support: 30, Resistance: 32 |
| IGN | Networking | B | B | B | Down trend: Support:25.50, resistance: 27.36 |
| PBW | Clean Energy | B | B | B | Down trend: Support: 8.21, resistance: 9.68 |
| XLI | Industrial | B | B | B | Down trend: Support: 27.67, resistance: 31.15 |
| XHB | Home builders | B | B | B | Down trend, Support: 14, resistance:15.91, Multiple Bottoms |
| XLF | Financial | B | B | B | Down trend, Support: 13.29, resistance:14.33， Double Bottom |
| XLY | Consumer Discretion | B | B | B | Down trend, Support:29.80, resistance:31.24 |
| XLP | Consumer Staple | B | A | B | Down trend, Support:26.35, resistance:27.50 |
| XLK | Technology | B | B | B | Down trend, Support:20.58, resistance:22.19 |
| IYM | Material | B | A | B | Up trend, Support:56, resistance:62 |
| MOO | Agribusiness | A | A | A | Up trend, Support: 42.28, resistance:45.80 |
| USO | Oil | B | B | B | Down trend, Support: 32, resistance: 37.08 |
| KOL | Coal | B | B | B | Down trend, Support: 31.13, resistance:34.87 |
| UNG | Natural Gas | B | B | B | Down trend, Support：6，resistance:7.19 |
| GLD | Gold | A | A | A | Up trend, Support：118.35，resistance:123.56 |
| SLV | Silver | A | A | A | Trading range : 17 - 19, Overbought |
| JJC | Copper | A | A | A | Up trend, Support：43.68，resistance:48， Bullish Head and Shoulder |
| RJZ | Metals | A | A | A | Up trend, Support：9.64，resistance:10.50, Bullish Head and Shoulder |
| RJA | All Agri-products | A | A | A | Up trend, Support：7.97，resistance:9 |
| DBA | Major Agri-products | A | A | A | Up trend, Support：25.45，resistance:27 |
| DBC | Energy, Metal, Agri | B | A | B | Up trend, Support：22，resistance:23.26 |
| TLT | 20+year Treasury | A | A | A | Up trend, Support: 103 , resistance:109.34, Correcting Up Trend |
| JNK | High Yield Bond | B | A | A | Up trend, Support: 38.50， Resistance: 39.59 |
| FXE | Euro | B | B | B | Down trend, Support: 125, Resistance:128.78 |
| FXB | Pound | B | A | B | Up trend, Support: 153.21，Resistance: 156.08 |
| FXY | Yen | A | A | A | Up trend, Support: 113.74, Resistance: 118.44 |
| CAF | China A Share | B | A | B | Up trend, Support: 27.86, Resistance:30 |
| FXI | Xinhua 25 | B | B | B | Down trend, Support:38.65, Resistance:41.14 |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | B | A | B | Up trend, Support:39.31， Resistance:42.59 |
| BIK | BRIC 40 | B | B | B | Down trend, Support:23, Resistance:24.62 |
| IYT | Transportation | B | B | B | Down trend, Support:72.50, resistance: 77.72 |
| $VIX | Volitility Index | A | B | A | Down Trend, Support:21.36, Resistance:30, Investor confidence is rising |
| GDX | Gold miners | A | A | A | Up trend, Support:50.31, Resistance:54.83 |
| FXA | Australian $ | B | A | A | Up trend, Support: 88.75, resistance:92.29 |
| SEA | Bulk Shipping | B | B | A | Trading range: 24.35 - 28.88 |
| IAI | Brokerage | B | B | B | Down trend, Support:23.37, Resistance:25.19, Double Bottom |
| SLX | Steel | B | B | B | Down trend, Support:54.74, Resistance:60.55 |
| PSP | Listed Private Equity | B | B | B | Down trend, Support:8.51, Resistance:9.24 |
| XLV | Health Care | B | B | B | Up trend, Support:28, Resistance:30 |
| UUP | US dollar Index | A | B | A | Up trend, Support:23.79 Resistance:24.18, Head and Shoulder Bottom |
Earning Reports This Week: 08/30FEED, GRO, CMM, DGAS, DCI, EXXI, FUQI, JTX, JOSB, LTON, OMNI, SEED, QXM, WINN, 08/31 ABM, ARAY, APSG, BNS, CHOP, CCUR, CPY, DG, DSW, ENER, FTLK, ISLE, MELA, MTLK, RMG, SGI, VCO09/1BGP, CHRS, CO, CGA, PSS, FCEL, GCO, GLBC, HNZ, JOYG, MATK, OXM, SAI, ULCM09/02ARST, AZPN, CSIQ, CASC, DLM, FNSR, HRB, KKD, LAYN, MEI, MOV, ZQK, SEAC, SCMR, TTWO, COO, UTIW, VIP, 09/03CPB, XSEL
Economic Reports This Week: 08/30 Personal Income, Personal spending, 08/31 Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, FOMC meeting minutes 09/01 ADP Employment, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing index, 09/02 Initial Jobless Claims, Productivity, Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales, 09/03 Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services Index 08/30 个人收入，个人支出，芝加哥采购经理指数 8/31 消费者信心，联邦公开市场委员会会议记录 09/01 ADP公司就业，建设支出，ISM制造业指数，09/02 首次失业人数，生产力，工厂订单，待完成房屋销售，09/03 新增非农就业，失业率，ISM服务业指数
